Reflections

The recent news on the economic front has brought little cheer with IIP numbers, Current Account Deficit, Inflation, Exchange Rates all being dissatisfactory. Market sentiment continues to be abysmal, and charges of misgovernment abound. There seems to be little cheer on the global horizon either with Europe in the doldrums, BR(I)CS being questioned, and the grand-daddy of them all (USA) having serious problems of its own. This, in a nutshell, is the scenario that confront our policy makers,  planners, corporates and the common man The reaction from at least the policy makers is clear, as is evident from the Hon. FM's statements of recent days: FDI! Attract foreign inflows! The reaction of corporates is also crystal clear, at least externally - wait'n'watch. And the common man is way too occupied in meeting his own targets of meals for the family 2 times a day to worry overmuch about anything. And, at the end of it all, no one is actually doing anything, in reality h...

http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/suparna-karmakar-fdi-in-retail-is-much-ado-about-nothing/496750/ Date: 25th December It gladdens the heart to see optimism and good sense beginning to prevail over this non-issue; the latest article on this matter has yet again revisited, and added to, earlier papers on this topic, which is worth a mention. " Research on impact of retail sector regulations by the author for a CUTS international report on Competition and Regulation in India, 2011 revealed that: (a) Globally, in densely populated countries like India (with consequent higher real estate prices), small-store formats thrive, and even flourish in the face of the competition from big-box retail; (b) On the other hand, the introduction of foreign competition forced manufacturers to cut costs in their supply chains and small stores become more efficient, and provide more serious competition to large-store formats and centralised operation that the multinational retai...

The knight in <i>veshti</i> : 'via Blog this' The mornings usually have a specific ritual for all of us... a cuppa tea or coffee with the newpaper (online or print, what does it matter) to peruse... and it was during this daily ritual that I noticed an article in the Business Standard Weekend section: The Knight In Veshti. ( Link Enclosed ). A remarkable article that showcases just how the critical and laudable decisions were taken leading upto the opening of FDI in Retail as well as the Diesel Price Increase. A blow by blow account such as this one is not easy to come by, so savour it, and read through it thoroughly. I say read through properly because it raises many deeper questions (not about UPA-2; this is not a political blog) but about what passes for democracy in India. In some cases, deeper and disturbing questions; since there is no clear answer in the foreseeable future in sight. I quote: " Dinesh Trivedi, then railways minister, sai...

Catch them young - Hindustan Times : 'via Blog this' " Consider this: when asked if dishonesty was acceptable for success, 70% said yes. The response to whether it is fine to cheat one friend for another was split almost midway — 43% said 'yes' or 'sometimes', while 43% said 'no'. The rest were unsure " The results of this survey are by themselves quite shocking; but far more than being just shocking, they are also a  call-to-arms (as it were) for all of us, a wake up call if you will. What is even more worrisome is that this is not the first wake-up call that we are receiving... we have studiously ignored each and every indication and wake-up call that we have received so far. What kind of society are we building - one in which the large majority of citizens think it is ok to be dishonest? It is acceptable to cheat? Far more pertinent is the question as to the source of their "learnings", if you could call it that. Schoo...

It is with a considerable degree of surprise that I have been reading some articles criticizing the iconic show Satyamev Jayate and Aamir Khan, which are frankly way beyond my comprehension. There are views being expressed that the show is pure showmanship, commercialisation of problems, will Aamir return to these problems once show is over, the show is just Aamir, Aamir and Aamir... do they (the critics) do justice by their comments? Let us examine it in 2 parts: Aamir Khan, and Social Change Aamir Khan No television show has created as much of a buzz as Satyamev Jayate, the iconic show anchored by Aamir Khan. To a nation used to a diet of game shows, movies, soap operas, reality shows it was unthinkable that a television show based on something as serious as Satyamev Jayate could be a resounding success - but that is precisely what has happened. It is far beyond both my knowledge as well as the scope of my blog to analyse the precise reasons for its stupendous success, ...

Current Account Deficit nearly 4%... (or more than 4 now) High Fiscal Deficit High Inflation Policy Paralysis... Eurozone brouhaha I could go on and on several real and imagined parameters...  but the above should be good enough to underline that we are currently passing through rather tough times. The newspapers are, on a daily basis, full of doomsday predictions, blaming ruling alliance and so on and so forth! Policy paralysis has almost become the buzzword! And it is precisely these thoughts running through my mind - especially the tough times bit - that reminded me of an age-old idiom " Every black cloud has a silver lining ".  I dont want - or intend - to sermonize; so let me get straight to the point: there is a clearly definable silver line that has now appeared for the ruling party. From the UPA-II point of view, the important points are: Indian Economy in trouble Public up in arms against just about every move the government makes All time...

Circa 1998... I am in my first job - and get a call from the Director-Marketing's cabin. I reach the cabin with all sorts of good, bad and ridiculous thoughts racing in my mind... Mr Khardekar says - "Come in, Vishal. Meet your brother!!!!" Great. Except for one tiny detail. I had never even seen the guy in my life - this brother of mine! (Sorry, Atul Dada) We got to know each other that day, then met quite a few times till we drifted apart again in due course of time. What has this got to do with Facebook? Plenty - Have patience!  Well, time passed - and then, one fine day, I receive a friend request from Atul Kale on facebook. He had since shifted to England, and we rarely - in fact, never spoke to each other. But then, thanks to technology and facebook, we got in touch again. Score one for facebook! I myself am a late convert to this platform... rejected many, many requests - till one day, in an idle moment, I decided to see what it is all about. A...

The Hindu : News / National : Inside India's defence acquisition mess : 'via Blog this' http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article3253952.ece http://www.hindustantimes.com/Images/Popup/2012/3/29_03_12-metro8.htm http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indus-calling/entry/save-army-s-honour Continuing from my previous post, a simple perusal of the morning papers revealed an expected but nevertheless interesting scenario: Most news coverage was concentrated either on The General or on the Congress / UPA. Here we are- faced with a nearly 1962-like situation in terms of Defences, sitting on a powder-keg situation, nearly naked (if the Chief's letter is 100% accurate - which I dont doubt, judging from a series of critical articles in various sources over the past few years) - and the entire Media is focussing on anything but Defence. Most newspapers are sticking to their market positioning - which is fine under normal circumstances. If you are known for rep...

Army toothless: General VK Singh drops letter bomb on govt - Hindustan Times : 'via Blog this' http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article3254276.ece?homepage=true http://www.hindustantimes.com/editorial-views-on/Edits/Not-all-quiet-on-this-front/Article1-831721.aspx http://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column_time-to-clean-up-army-but-who-ll-do-it_1668276 http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Army-chief-vs-govt-Tension-escalates/articleshow/12443490.cms I am beginning to wonder what is required for the people of India to wake up from their abhorrent stupor... Institution after institution is collapsing with monotonous regularity due to abject neglect! School performance is the lowest in the world; rampant corruption; inefficient policing; falling economic indicators; Telecom tangle; FDI in retail imbroglio; Judicial activism; Satyam.... And now the Army. One point shines through this entire episode: The Media is more concerned with the Government...

ICRIER Report on Organised Retail:  http://www.icrier.org/pdf/Working_Paper222.pdf Knight Frank Report:  http://my.knightfrank.com/research-reports/india-retail-market.aspx   I have been arguing in my writings that the threat to kirana stores in India does not exist, and that the 2 can co-exist.... interested parties may refer the above researches that have been conducted in India circa 2008 & 2010. I admit that these are a bit dated, and might need to be re-validated. However, I have not observed any difference in any of the cities in which I have made queries and observations; the trend seems to be the same as before. Not one of the small retailers I have spoken to in any city has told me of a decline in business volume or profit. The key finding of the report are encapsulated below: 1) An initial fall of 23% in terms of volume. This loss is made up in the subsequent years 2) No evidence of a decline in overall employment in the organised sector ...

The Hindu : Opinion / Op-Ed : Honesty can get you killed : 'via Blog this' " It has been openly acknowledged that a sizeable number of candidates, who were recently put up or elected to the State Assembly, at least in one State, had a known criminal record. There is no public outrage over it." "What is the practical course of action to prevent the mafia in Madhya Pradesh from striking again? The Chief Minister has ordered a judicial enquiry. This is the best way to ensure the truth about those who were behind the gory incident does not emerge, at least for a long time." " Things have now reached such a pass that you can speak and stand for honesty and adherence to the law only at your peril. Physical harm to you and your family are normally to be expected, and it is your luck if that does not visit you. This would not have been the case if these rapacious elements in society have not been lent unholy support by some of our elected representa...

Another IPS officer attacked in MP - The Times of India : http://www.hindustantimes.com/India-news/MadhyaPradesh/Tractor-crushes-IPS-officer-to-death-in-Madhya-Pradesh/Article1-822603.aspx 'via Blog this' Circa 2007 It is truly amazing how the simplest of experiences leads one to a train of thoughts transcending a multitude of subject-domains, as happened to me yesterday night. The event in itself was mundane, were it not for the extenuating circumstances: A motor-bike drive between 2 cities 44 kilometers apart. But what happened on that route has set my mental rollers rolling something fierce! I would like to enumerate these diverse thoughts, and justify my connection to and rating of the above topic.  The time was 9:15 PM at night when I left Bhilai for home, 44 kms away on NH-6 towards Nagpur. This is usually a very safe track, with hardly a policeman or checkpoint visible along the way. I have made this drive on bike as well as by taxi several times at night...

India a superpower? Unlikely, says London School of Economics study - The Economic Times : 'via Blog this' As per the London School Of Economics, the 7 reasons identified that we cannot become a superpower are: The Challenge Of The Naxalites Hindutvawadis Degradation Of The Center Increasing Rich-Poor Gap Trivialisation Of The Media Unsustainable Resource Consumption Instability And Policy Incoherence Of A Coalition Government The first point regarding Naxalites can and should be extended to include terrorist threats that sap the energy from the atmosphere and prove to be a real impediment to development. Why state only Naxalites? India is facing a range of internal threats to peace that go far beyond the Naxalite problem. What is more, the threats are not showing signs of waning. We are nowhere in sight of a solution - and without a solution, this problem will continue to be a dead-weight around our legs as we strive for progress. The second point is, in my ...

Hugo Dixon & Jeff Glekin: Unravelling India: growth bottlenecks : 'via Blog this' Classic analysis and Development  - 360 degree viewpoint, almost. In summation, the authors are looking at the following points: Corruption High-level corruption Petty corruption Electoral corruption Anti Corruption Movement/s Lokpal / Anna Hazare Media Right to Information and its impact CAG, CJI etc other pro-and re-active offices Stray political responses Corruption Remedies Powerful Independent Lokpal Transparency in Government RTI - 2005 and its impact UID Project and its impact Sustainable Growth Economy Demographic Dividend GDP Per Capita Bottlenecks Private Investment, negative sentiment of the same Politics - Coalition politics and decentralisation Environmental issues and problems Corruption Problems of the day: Decline in investment, fiscal deficit, corruption and environmental roadblocks The article deserves special mention since ...

My job carried me on my trusty motorcycle - a Kawasaki Bajaj 4S Champion - to several states and on more highways than I care to count. What started as journeys undertaken with some trepidation soon became a fun activity, laden with many observations, life experiences and learnings that have stayed with me... and shall stay with me all my life. I have tried to encapsulate some observations on driving on roads, digging into what all my collective bosses hope is sincere working hours spent on a bike during the formative years of my career: TRUCKS Common sense says beware of them. The newspapers say beware of them. The people say beware of them… I say that they are the best drivers on the roads. They come in various styles, shapes and sizes. Here I shall attempt to enumerate the styles: 1) The 40-km-an-hour truck: This guy will stick tape on his accelerator once speed reaches 40. Result? The damned truck will stay at 40 kmph come hell or high weather! Any kind of road, any ...

I have penned some 3 posts on Retail so far, and forwarded the following assumptions: Organised Retail will not kill the Kirana Format The two can co-exist I had occasion to visit the market today to stock up on provisions, and I decided to cross-check my personal hypothesis by talking to a Reliance Fresh Outlet and a couple of my regular Kirana Stores. These are almost next door to me, and more importantly, are less than 100 yards from an EasyDay Superstore The Kirana Owner was pretty candid in his analysis. He said "Dhanda kam hone kaa to sawaal hi paida nahi hota sir. Peheli baat to har cheez ke daam badh rahein hain, doosri baat hum graahak ke baju mein hi baithhe hain. Pichhle teen saal mein humaaraa dhandaa to badhaa hi hai, ghataa nahi. Itnaa zaroor hai ki kisi din 5000 ka maal biktaa hai to kisi din 3000 kaa. " Translation: Business has gone up in the past 3 years. I asked him about the past 3 years simply because it has been around 3-5 years since...

We can glean a few pertinent observations from the categorywise break-up of the current status of Organised Retail. I have surmised in my earlier blog post that the Kirana Stores threat does not exist. The key drivers of business in the Organised Retail sector can be said to be: Clothing Footwear Consumer Durables Home Appliances and Equiments Furnishings, Utensils, Furniture Watches Jewellery - new Entrant A simple observation of the shops on offer in various malls, organised retail chains will throw up the above categories that are present as major drivers. We can list a number of competitors in Clothing, or Footwear. A simple observation of our - and our family and neighbours' purchasing habits will prove my point. In Clothing, we have Fashion Bazaar, Westside, Peter England, Vishal MegaMart, Koutons, ITC, Benetton, Raymond to name but a few.  In other Categories, you have Vijay Sales, Welspun, FabIndia, Lotus, Next, DigiWorld etc etc. The point is the current vo...