Asian Juggernaut is a book with a massive, vast scope
- aiming for covering the challenges, prospects and history of a massive
continent; a continent that for most of History of the Earth was the
predominant one. This is historical fact; this also means that its strategic
analysis will also have to be of that level of depth. Secondly, Asia is a
modern strategic playground for European / American powers, and is likely
to remain as such for the foreseeable
future. It has had the status of a plaything of the West for 300+ years now.
Thirdly, thanks largely to Western interference – aided in no small measure by
Asian Naivete & Power Hunger, it is a continent deeply divided. We Asians
Fail to realise that we need to be cohesive, unitary, one – giving the West the
opportunity to use us for their means & ends. That wont change.
THE MISSES
None of these facts is going to change anytime soon.
Neither are they going to be forgotten - in that light, this book has more
misses than it does pluses - which accounts for my low rating for it. That does
not mean that this book is bad; far from it. It is a good read; my problem is that I feel it just fails
to do justice to the vast scope of Asia, or - if you like, going by the title
alone - India / Japan / China. Thing is, if you consider these 3 alone, you
have to consider all Asia; and if you
then pay scant attention to Russia, dismiss it totally almost as an
afterthought - you lose 1-2 stars in the rating. And if you then miss out the
other vast scope Asia includes - then even 2 stars is a stretch for rating it.
The other problem in this book is the almost exclusive
focus on China; this is a book on 3 nations, but it comes out as China centric.
While this may seem fine, given China’ dominance, there is a strong need to
give a lot more balance to the entire layout and aspects covered. China centricism
is fine given a far more wholesome analysis of options for each nation in equal
measure. And that means, a deeper analysis of Russia, the Far East and the
Middle East. In reality, I got the impression that Australia finds a larger place than Russia in
the book, which is a distinct surprise!
In addition to that, a more balanced look at history,
especially the entire Tibet saga. What is there in the book does seem to be
accurate – but it moves smoothly from 1954-ish straight to 1962; missing a lot of additional events that
happened. This lends me to wonder… I appreciate they may seem a logical outcome
of the lead up to 1954, but in an analysis all factors, historical points etc need
to be mentioned. This is missed here.
THE HITS
I would like people to take a positive impression of
this book – hence listed the minuses first. Coming to the positives, first of
all, on China, this is a comprehensive analysis. It gives a deep, wide and in
depth look at China from almost all angles. The best part is the US-China relationship,
which, as it turns out, is far more complex than first appears. If you wash
away the posturing from both sides – it emerges quite clearly that it is a multi-layered
complex relationship. The simplistic Indian-Rightist take of US-China head-on issues
clearly comes out as naïve and just plain wrong. Fact is, USA will continue to
manipulate India and China for some time to come; we cannot expect any US clear
support.
The US and China will not go head-on; quite the
opposite, given the trade between them, the US dependence on Chinese imports,
and most importantly the Chinese investments in the USA and its dollar reserves,
meaning a debt situation. Then there are other counterbalancing issues in other
regions – Japan and the emergent nationalistic feelings there; the Russian bear
on the North – meaning it is in US’ interests to keep China off balance, yet
engaged. To Indians hoping for USA to go hammer-and-tongs anti-China – rhetoric
and empty statements aside – stop hoping, not gonna happen.
The book raised an interesting possibility in my mind
– that the USA might also have enabled the rise of China from developing status
to the power it is today. For China to have such a massive imbalanced Trade –
well, given the real world of tariff / non-tariff barriers and trade politics –
this cannot have happened without tacit US support. This is not too far from
what happened elsewhere – most newly developed nations have a strong US
back-support; but then – China apart, none are truly free to make their own
strategic decisions. This again means that the Indian hope of US-India
friendship based on a China platform is pointless, and a pipe-dream. This is
also corroborated by the US-China Nuclear matters, and the US looking the other
way – at times implied tacit support to China - as discussed in the book. So US-India vs
China? No chance. Forget it.
The book takes a fascinating look at Japan, tracing
the rise of Japanese anti-US sentiment, Japanese internal nationism; as well as
the China vs Japan relationship. This is the second aspect of the book that I
absolutely loved for its clarity, accurate historical perspective, given that
it starts from the Meiji Restoration, and spot-on current analysis. While a lot
more space should have been given to Japan, what is there is enough to leave a
lasting impression, painting as it does a picture of a nation deep in the throes
of some change, and reluctantly taking a relook at its own direction. We Indians would do well
to keep our eyes peeled on Japan.
CONCLUSION
A good book for people wanting to remove the rose-tint
from their eyes, and get a handle on the real-world geopolitics of Asia. Despite
the low rating, this is a must read, as it opens your eyes, points you in
several further directions in which to focus your future reading, opens
interesting possibilities, and raises curiosity. Sadly, there are some gaps,
but what is present in the book is good. It is full of China, and needs more
space for others, and a lot more focus on Russia. Agreed that the title is these
3 nations – but you cannot analyse these 3 along geopolitical aspects without
bringing in Russia. Especially not India; which is why my review is totally
silent on the Indian perspectives given in this book.
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