MODI
SARKAR : THE ACHILLES HEEL
It has
taken a long time to manifest itself, but at long last, we see a developing
Achilles Heel in our famed Modi Sarkar; a sad development indeed, given that
this is the best government we have had in the past several decades. The only
good thing is that the Achilles Heel has manifested itself from a totally
unexpected direction; not only that, it also holds serious potential of
rekindling a genuine opposition on a national scale, which is a needed and
vital component of a functioning democracy.
It has
taken twin developments in two connected areas for the weakness to manifest
itself : Farmers’ Suicides, and The Land Bill. Taken together, this has created
a situation in which, if properly strategized, the opposition can rebuild
itself, while simultaneously undermining the central government.
THE
CONGRESS : AWAKENING
The sad
part is that once again, it is the
Congress that has the opportunity to rise from the ashes. This is sad because
it has yet again failed to democratize, and has placed its faith on Dynasty. I
have nothing against Rahul Gandhi; he may be an excellent potential leader for
all I know; then again, he might not. That is not relevant; what is relevant is
the fact that The Congress does not have any leader it feels can connect with
the people, despite having some good people on its roster.
Be that
as it may, the Congress has taken what
seems to be the right step; change track from the all-too-familiar “communal
politics” track to a far more sensible and development oriented focus : that of
the farmer and their issues. This bodes well for our democracy, for our economy
and for our society, as now there is a chance the real issues might get a much
needed attention and focus.
The
best way to tackle communalism is not to fan it; all the while building solid
relationships within communities. A politically charged message has a polarizing
impact, and if the community specific plank is being abandoned by all parties,
this is a development worth celebrating. If all parties can abandon a community
specific focus, the only way India can go is up and forward. Aag ko jitnaa tool doge, jitni hawaa doge,
utni failegi.
And
harping on the communal message, which was not making a connect with any
definable voter base was always a suspect strategy. Besides, there has to be a
provable base for such a strategy that can be directly traced back to your
opposition; and this is clearly absent in the BJP.
THE BJP
: SLEEPING!
The
BJP, meanwhile, is basking in the glory of its rise to power, and ignoring
these undercurrents, which might yet turn into a deluge. While it is doing
excellent work in any number of areas, its approach and presentation to the
people on these two issues is strange and more than a little disturbing, given
the party’s admirable understanding of the pulse of India and the Indian
people.
Please
note my choice of words : in this article,
I am taking no position on the Central Government’s Agricultural and Land
Policies – that is the subject of another, research based and supported
article/s that I shall take up a little later on the Agricultural challenges
being faced by India. I am only analyzing the potential impact of the presentation in front of the people, and
the angst among them.
It adheres
to a top-down development ideology, counting on investment in infrastructure, amenities
to drive rural upliftment and employment, while attempting to ensure good
governance at all levels of Government. It has also taken a few good steps in
the Agriculture sector {Analysed on my blog here : Union
Budget Analysis}; these will require time to properly strategise and implement.
What is
more pertinent that it has done little to meet head-on the anti-farmer label
that is being leveled against it by some, beyond messages to the farming
community by the PM. More and more parties and groups are now coming into the open, calling
its policies as pro-Urban India and anti-farmer. The most important aspect that the BJP seems to have forgotten is the
population of India – the top 200 Urban Agglomerations account for only around
15.46% of population as per Census 2011
Thus,
any message targeted at the rural community that is focused not on ideology,
religion, regionalism but rather on their bread and butter is certain to get
the attention of the people. That is a foregone conclusion; the needs of the stomach
will take primacy; that is a primordial fear. The BJP is giving a message of
development : how is this message being received by the population? Is it
making a connect with the people?
THE
HISTORY
For
Urban India, it means investments, growth and jobs. What does it mean for Rural
India? What have the prior experiences of Rural India been in this regard? It
should mean the same for them : but is this the way it is being perceived in
Rural India? Farmers stand to lose their lands; what will they get in return?
Each piece of land further supports landless labourers, input vendors etc – we are
talking of snatching an entire ecosystem.
What is
the history, the prior experiences of the farming community in India? As This
Article : Why Farmers Have Every Right to Feel Gypped explores in painful
detail – there is a sad, almost terrifying history of governmental failure of
monumental proportions behind this
rising tide of protests against the BJP Government with regard to the
Agricultural Sector; what is sad is that this Government has
actually started a series of steps that drive some hope into the refurbishment
of this sector in the budget, which makes this image of anti-farmer a real
tragedy in itself.
And look at the third and recent case
reported this month in The Times of India which makes you want to cry and laugh
- both at the same time!
The gist of the case is: in 1998, the
Railways acquired land from Mela Ram and Madan Lal to lay the Una-Amb track in
Himachal Pradesh. As usual, the Railways adopted delaying tactics when it came
to paying up. The farmers filed a case for enhanced compensation. After a fair
amount of legal to-ing and fro-ing, in
2013, the HP High Court directed the railways to pay the money within six
weeks. "But the railways hasn't deposited the amount until now", the
farmers' advocate AK Saini said a few weeks ago. Typical.
So, on April 9, 2015, Mukesh Bansal, the
additional district and sessions judge of Una ordered the attachment of the
train if the railways failed to pay compensation to the two farmers!! The court
said if Mela Ram and Madan Lal did not get Rs. 8.91 lakh and Rs. 26.53 lakh
respectively, the train would be stopped at Una station at 5 am on April 16 and
attached by it. The farmers were asked to select one out of four trains - and
they selected The Delhi-Una Janshatabdi Express!
SUMMARY
My
point is simple : the steps taken by the BJP Government have exposed a chink in
their armoury, one that is now being exploited by the opposition. This is the
Achilles Heel; their weakness. And there is nothing they can do about it; not
over the short term. I have purposely taken an isolated case history above :
the point is that there is a feeling of inadequacy and helplessness that is
rooted in genuine truth and a terrifying history of crass incompetence on the
part of successive central governments over the years.
And
this atmosphere is giving rise to an opposition movement that is, for the first
time in my memory {correct me if I am wrong}, focused on real issues that make
a powerful connect with the target audience in Rural India as on solid whole.
For the first time, we now have an issue-based discussion in Indian Politics,
which is bringing this issue mainstream.
All it
really requires to bring the BJP juggernaut to a grinding halt is a solid loss
in a few upcoming state elections; were that to happen, coming on top of the
shock in Delhi, things will get interesting, as the BJP will be forced to
recalibrate and reassess its approach and its communication. Unless the BJP can
get its house in order and connect with Rural India and its real issues in
light of the historical experience and the on-ground realities and challenges in Rural India, they stand to lose ground…
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