Yet again, our nation has been shocked by
a heinous terrorist attack – at Pulwama, martyring more than 40 of our brave
CRPF personnel in the prime of life. My heart – numb with shock, can only pray
to the Almighty to give strength to their families in this dark hour. Let us, before
we analyse our options, spend a minute to think of what these families have lost;
with grief in my heart, to those braves, I can only say : shat shat naman… may you Rest In Peace!
MOVING
AHEAD
In this terrible hour, let us do our best
to keep calm. This does not mean I recommend inaction; rather, let us allow our
Government- it is an excellent
Government – to do its Job. Give them time and space to deal with the terror on
their own terms. I do not advocate we forgive and / or forget; just that we remain calm, and confident that
our Government is there to respond and deal with this. Building vocal
pressure towards any particular response method – there are plenty of options
{look below} – is not the way forward now, not for us Armchair specialists at
any rate. We, the public, have neither the experience, not ability, nor the
expertise to make an informed choice. Let us keep calm, people.
THE
OPTIONS
What are the options in front of us? These
range from the Kinetic, action oriented ones right to some strong diplomatic
moves not tried before; all options are present. They can be listed as :
ü Kinetic – Strike, or Cross-LOC / IB Action
ü Diplomatic :
Downgrade or stop Diplomatic Relations Walk out of treaties, like the Indus Water Treaty Build International Diplomatic Pressure Force / Ask our Allies to make things difficult for
Pakistan, to choose between us
ü Trade / Economic :
Withdraw MFN Status Complete Trade Embrago Ask MNCs to choose between India and Pakistan – you cant
be in both
ü Social :
Stop all contacts with the people of Pakistan Stop issuing Visas, etc No sporting contacts, any sport. Not even Competition
events. Walk out.
THE
ANALYSIS – BASIC
Well, I am not a domain expert, my
objective here is just to do my bit to calm the waters in this hour. That said,
there are indeed many options we have not tried in the 2nd, 3rd
and 4th arenas. You may ask how will it help? My answer to that is
that this is a deep rooted problem emanating from the Pakistani deep state {incl.
ISI}; and previous history tells us our response has to be broad-based. Only
then will an effective counter-measure be found. And none of the options are
easy to implement, having deep ramifications for us as well, in international
terms.
KINETIC
In fact, a planned multi-frontal diplomatic
/ non-kinetic attack is the need of the hour, as it would isolate Pakistan
completely, once it becomes apparent that India means business, and the
pressure is not going to let up at all. On the kinetic option – we civilians
just aren’t qualified to make any comment, let me leave it at that. Let us not
even contemplate that option in our public or social media discussions – War or
strikes is not to be considered by people like us even in our admittedly justified
anger, even at this hour. That is a call only the specialists have a right to
think on.
THE
OTHER OPTIONS
But we can hope for, ask for, indicate
our willingness towards other hard options – and none of the options listed
above is an easy one, not in this connected global world with its myriad
treaties and global associations. And giving signals that we are amenable to,
as a people. the strongest available diplomatic, economic and social measures is
the way you proceed to communicate public opinion in a Democracy. We should unequivocally support the
Government and the Forces –there is no stronger confidence booster than to know
you have the people solidly behind any decision you make – even if ultimately other
harder options – Kinetic variety- become necessary,
The Asian status today is a mixed bag of
a variety of hotspots like Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan; US vs China to name but a
few; any options we consider must factor in these realities as well as the
impact on our global treaty commitments and global diplomatic relationships. We
do not live in isolation, there needs to be
a proper evaluation of the reperecussions – all possible repercussions –
of each decision we make. For example, chucking the Indus Waters Treaty has
international ramifications as it is a
World-Bank sponsored treaty. Similarly,
scaling down diplomatic relations, Economic warfare has many repercussions, as
there exist bilateral treaties.
An affected MNC {if we, for ex,ask MNCs
to choose between India & Pakistan} can trigger diplomatic intervention.
Thus, there is no easy solution here; Similar is the Kinetic option- not easy,
given the US presence in AFPak, and the Nuclear angle meaning the slightest
tension causes sleeplessness in
Washington, London etc! That means there remains the risk that we may be
facing international approaches if we act without blunting all of these
eventualities. These myriad considerations is why we armchair specialists can
help the Government best by keeping calm, and allowing them time and space to
act. And, the response from our side has been swift, lightening fast – note that
25 nations including P-5 were met diplomatically within 24-36 hours of the
attack. So, I have just one request: please maintain trust, and keep calm.
IN CONCLUSION
I can understand the anger – being a
fellow Indian, I feel the same pain that all of us are feeling. I can note the
stunned shock that has descended on all of us, it was seen in the subdued, at
times vey angry Social Media; it was seen when Whatsapp went totally silent
yesterday; it was seen in the market and at work in the somber mood. That said,
we need to understand that these matters aren’t simple – involving ramifications
in a multitude of areas & requiring thoughtful coordinated planning, and
that there are already inidicatoins that the Government is acting, and rapidly
at that. My objective is simply a small
effort at showing my anger, while doing my tiny bit to ensure reason & calm
prevails in our interactions on social media…
👍very well written. I completely agree.
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