The election
of Trump as POTUS had got the right wing in India in a celebratory mode; there
were hopes of this event having a positive impetus on the Indo-US relationship.
This hope was, at the outset, a wildly optimistic hope, given that Trump was
elected on a protectionist rhetoric, a message of bringing jobs back to The USA;
this was, however, ignored in the larger light of his views on terrorism as
well as other factors, which seemed to indicate good tidings.
In the
approximately 100-odd days since his taking over as POTUS, however, early
indicators have given enough reason for the more optimistic among us Indians to
become far more realistic; Trump as a President has done exactly as he has
promised – which is admittedly a surprise even to me. Frankly, on one side, it
is good to see a politician walking the talk in the USA. That said, the other
side of the equation has given rise to many, many deep rooted questions which
need answering for us.
His focus on
creating Jobs in the USA are beginning to give results for the Americans; good
for them. But, it has come at a cost. In a connected world, any movement either
side in any place will have an attendant cost side on some other side. And in
this, we are on the other side, as more Jobs in America mean lesser Jobs in
India, as visa rules tighten up, and Indian companies are forced to invest in
the USA not just in infrastructure but in hiring as well. This means, as per at
least one article, loss of jobs in India, to the ratio of 4:1. This makes
perfect sense, given the per capita difference and wage rules difference.
From this
one example alone, it can be seen that the coming of Trump is nowhere near
being exactly a great thing for us Indians, at least not in the business
atmosphere. Now whether it is a bad thing remains to be seen; just cause it isn’t
good doesn’t automatically mean it is bad. It depends on a variety of sectors
{I have taken but one example} as well as on our response on the diplomatic and
business fronts. That is something that we shall see in the fullness of time.
But for now, there is enough reason for us to become realistic, stop eulogizing
Trump and the USA, and analyse dispassionately.
Having said
that, there are early indicators of rising stress in some other areas as well,
where either disputes are pending, or where the Trump administration is showing
signs of toughness. Taxation in startups and corporates is one such area that
comes to mind; the USA reviewing nations with which it has a trade deficit is
another area of potentially rising stress. Note that early last month, The
Trump administration launched a 90-day
investigation of countries, including India, against which the US runs a
bilateral trade deficit – just another example.
Just think
of this for a moment; a rich country, doing its best to profit for itself, at
the cost of a poor country. Think of the amorality of this hard move. You can
call it business all you want – but if you know
that your move will harm a country with
which you are trying to be friends, I am pretty sure that a middle path can
be found, so long as there is genuine
desire on both sides of the equation. India has shown its desire to be
friendly; now the ball is in the the US court to respond. I am not hopeful! Not
only is this amoral, it does not sound a very friendly move on the part of the
USA!
If that isn’t
all, this – aah – trend of moves that have the potential to disturb India doesn’t
stop at trade. It extends to the Geopolitical and Strategic levels as well,
where there is a lot more clarity needed on direction as on date. So far, the
USA has not only shown no indication of
acting against Pakistan, it has in fact done the reverse, trying to re-hyphenate India-Pakistan,
offering to intervene in our bilateral matters. More recently, it gave
indications of cutting aid to India, while keeping Pakistan untouched!
Put it all
together – and the reality stares at you. India-USA are as far apart as they
were before; yes- there are
possibilities of great relations, a potential which was absent earlier. Agreed,
and granted. But the very real differences in world view, economic realities
and priorities, internal realities, and geopolitical differences mean that we
need to keep our eyes peeled, and our options open; we need to ensure our
interests are protected. And this is where the right-wing can help by stopping
the rhetoric!
REFERENCES:
REFERENCES:
- Delhi Solar Policy plans to solve energy crisis; here’s how solar panels will power your homes
- Trump card: Delhi to get tough if US blocks Indian exports
- Solar energy subsidy: After attempts for amicable solution fail, India drags US to WTO dispute settlement body
- India rejects US offer to mediate with Pakistan
- US plans to gut aid to India but continue with $200mn to Pakistan
- Every American Infosys hires in US will lead to loss of 4 jobs in India
Nice article
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